Changement climatique - Recherche française (avec laboratoires CNRS) - 2010-2015


Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

Publication Year


  • Gattuso, J-P
  • Magnan, A.
  • Bille, R.
  • Cheung, W. W. L.
  • Howes, E. L.
  • Joos, F.
  • Allemand, D.
  • Bopp, L.
  • Cooley, S. R.
  • Eakin, C. M.
  • Hoegh-Guldberg, O.
  • Kelly, R. P.
  • Poertner, H-O
  • Rogers, A. D.
  • Baxter, J. M.
  • Laffoley, D.
  • Osborn, D.
  • Rankovic, A.
  • Rochette, J.
  • Sumaila, U. R.
  • Treyer, S.
  • Turley, C.
SCIENCE Volume: 349 Issue: 6243 Pages: 45-+ Published: 2015
0036-8075 eISSN: 1095-9203

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems-and the goods and services they provide-for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario-consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2 degrees C-is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

KeyWord(s) Plus
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Multidisciplinary
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Multidisciplinary Sciences

[Gattuso, J-P] Inst Natl Sci Univers, CNRS, Lab Oceanog Villefranche, F-06230 Villefranche Sur Mer, France; [Gattuso, J-P] Univ Paris 06, Univ Paris 04, Observ Oceanol, F-06230 Villefranche Sur Mer, France; [Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A.; Rankovic, A.; Rochette, J.; Treyer, S.] Sci Po, Inst Sustainable Dev & Int Relat, F-75007 Paris, France; [Bille, R.] Secretariat Pacific Community, Noumea 98848, New Caledonia; [Cheung, W. W. L.] Univ British Columbia, Nippon Fdn UBC Nereus Program, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; [Howes, E. L.; Poertner, H-O] Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Inst, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany; [Joos, F.] Univ Bern, Inst Phys, Climate & Environm Phys, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; [Joos, F.] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; [Allemand, D.] Ctr Sci Monaco, MC-98000 Monaco, Monaco; [Allemand, D.] Prince Albert II Monaco Fdn, Sci & Tech Comm, MC-98000 Monaco, Monaco; [Bopp, L.] Univ Versailles St Quentin En Yvelines, Commissariat Energie Atom & Energies Alternat, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace,CNRS,UMR8212, Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Cooley, S. R.] Ocean Conservancy, Washington, DC 20036 USA; [Eakin, C. M.] NOAA, Coral Reef Watch, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; [Hoegh-Guldberg, O.] Univ Queensland, Global Change Inst, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia; [Hoegh-Guldberg, O.] Univ Queensland, Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Coral Reef, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia; [Kelly, R. P.] Univ Washington, Sch Marine & Environm Affairs, Seattle, WA 98105 USA; [Rogers, A. D.] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England; [Baxter, J. M.] Scottish Nat Heritage, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, Midlothian, Scotland; [Laffoley, D.] IUCN, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland; [Osborn, D.] IAEA, Environm Labs, MC-98000 Monaco, Monaco; [Rankovic, A.] Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Program Sci Technol & Soc, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; [Sumaila, U. R.] Univ British Columbia, Fisheries Econ Res Unit, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; [Turley, C.] Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England

Reprint Adress

Gattuso, JP (reprint author), Inst Natl Sci Univers, CNRS, Lab Oceanog Villefranche, F-06230 Villefranche Sur Mer, France.

  • Australia
  • Canada
  • France
  • Germany
  • Monaco
  • Switzerland
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR636
  • Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), UMR7093
  • Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), UMR8212
  • Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer, UMS829
Accession Number
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