The impact of tropical cyclones on humans depends on the number of people exposed and their vulnerability, as well as the frequency and intensity of storms. How will the cumulative effects of climate change, demography and vulnerability affect risk? Conventionally, reports assessing tropical cyclone risk trends are based on reported losses, but these figures are biased by improvements to information access. Here we present a new methodology based on thousands of physically observed events and related contextual parameters. We show that mortality risk depends on tropical cyclone intensity, exposure, levels of poverty and governance. Despite the projected reduction in the frequency of tropical cyclones, projected increases in both demographic pressure and tropical cyclone intensity over the next 20 years can be expected to greatly increase the number of people exposed per year and exacerbate disaster risk, despite potential progression in development and governance.
- PRIMARY HURRICANE VORTEX
- PARAMETRIC REPRESENTATION
- NATURAL HAZARDS
- Environmental Sciences
- Environmental Studies
- Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
[Peduzzi, P.; Chatenoux, B.; Dao, H.; De Bono, A.; Herold, C.; Nordbeck, O.] DEWA GRID Geneva, United Nations Environm Programme, Global Change & Vulnerabil Unit, CH-1219 Geneva, Switzerland; [Peduzzi, P.] Univ Lausanne, Inst Geomat & Risk Anal IGAR, Fac GeoSci & Environm, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; [Chatenoux, B.; De Bono, A.; Herold, C.] Univ Geneva, Fac Sci, Inst FA Forel, CH-1290 Versoix, Switzerland; [Dao, H.] Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, Dept Geog, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland; [Kossin, J.] Natl Climat Data Ctr NOAA, Asheville, NC 28801 USA; [Mouton, F.] Univ Grenoble, Inst Fourier, F-38402 St Martin Dheres, France
Peduzzi, P (reprint author), DEWA GRID Geneva, United Nations Environm Programme, Global Change & Vulnerabil Unit, 11 Ch Anemones, CH-1219 Geneva, Switzerland.