Changement climatique - Recherche française (avec laboratoires CNRS) - 2010-2015


Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

Publication Year


  • Jenouvrier, Stephanie
  • Holland, Marika
  • Stroeve, Julienne
  • Serreze, Mark
  • Barbraud, Christophe
  • Weimerskirch, Henri
  • Caswell, Hal
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Volume: 4 Issue: 8 Pages: 715-718 Published: 2014
1758-678X eISSN: 1758-6798

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution(1) and future trends of local populations(2,3), but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort(4). We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies(5) by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model(6,7) with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by > 50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics(8), global analyses are critical for conservation(9). We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

KeyWord(s) Plus
  • SEA
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Geosciences
  • Social Sciences
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Environmental Studies
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

[Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Caswell, Hal] Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Dept Biol, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA; [Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri] Univ La Rochelle, CNRS, UMR 7372, Ctr Etud Biol Chize, F-79360 Villiers En Bois, France; [Holland, Marika] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80305 USA; [Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; [Stroeve, Julienne] UCL, Ctr Polar Observat & Modelling, London WC1E 6BT, England; [Caswell, Hal] Univ Amsterdam, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Dynam, NL-1090 GE Amsterdam, Netherlands

Reprint Adress

Jenouvrier, S (reprint author), Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Dept Biol, MS-50, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA.

  • France
  • Netherlands
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC), UMR7372
Accession Number
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