Changement climatique - Recherche française (avec laboratoires CNRS) - 2010-2015


Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

Publication Year


  • Wisz, M. S.
  • Broennimann, O.
  • Gronkjaer, P.
  • Moller, P. R.
  • Olsen, S. M.
  • Swingedouw, D.
  • Hedeholm, R. B.
  • Nielsen, E. E.
  • Guisan, A.
  • Pellissier, L.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Volume: 5 Issue: 3 Pages: 261-265 Published: 2015
1758-678X eISSN: 1758-6798

Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific(1,2). Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier(3), potentially facilitating the interchange of marine biota between the two seas(4). Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter the Pacific and 44 species could enter the Atlantic, via one or both passages. Consistent with historical and recent biodiversity interchanges(5,6), this exchange of fish species may trigger changes for biodiversity and food webs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with ecological and economic consequences to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings.

KeyWord(s) Plus
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Geosciences
  • Social Sciences
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Environmental Studies
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

[Wisz, M. S.] DHI, DHI Dept Ecol & Environm, DK-2970 Horsholm, Denmark; [Wisz, M. S.; Gronkjaer, P.; Pellissier, L.] Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci, Arctic Res Ctr, DK-8000 Aarhus, Denmark; [Wisz, M. S.; Gronkjaer, P.; Hedeholm, R. B.; Nielsen, E. E.] Greenland Climate Res Ctr, Nuuk 3900, Greenland; [Broennimann, O.; Guisan, A.] Univ Lausanne, Dept Ecol & Evolut, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; [Gronkjaer, P.] Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci, DK-8000 Aarhus, Denmark; [Moller, P. R.] Univ Copenhagen, EvoGen Sect, Nat Hist Museum Denmark, DK-2100 Copenhagen E, Denmark; [Olsen, S. M.] Danish Meteorol Inst, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; [Swingedouw, D.] Univ Bordeaux, OASU, EPOC, CNRS,UMR 5805, F-33615 Pessac, France; [Hedeholm, R. B.] Greenland Inst Nat Resources, Nuuk 3900, Greenland; [Nielsen, E. E.] Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources, Sect Marine Living Resources, DK-8600 Silkeborg, Denmark; [Guisan, A.] Univ Lausanne, Inst Earth Surface Dynam, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; [Pellissier, L.] Univ Fribourg, Dept Biol Evolut & Ecol, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland

Reprint Adress

Wisz, MS (reprint author), DHI, DHI Dept Ecol & Environm, Agern Alle 5, DK-2970 Horsholm, Denmark.

  • Denmark
  • France
  • Greenland
  • Switzerland
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Environnements et paléoenvironnements océaniques et continentaux (EPOC), UMR5805
Accession Number
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