Changement climatique - Recherche française (avec laboratoires CNRS) - 2010-2015


Recent GIS based national assessments of climate change consequences in France: methods, results and lessons learnt

Publication Year


  • Le Cozannet, Goneri
  • Ait-Kaci, Ahmed
  • Colas, Sebastien
  • De Lacaze, Xavier
  • Lecacheux, Sophie
  • Mirgon, Carola
  • Peinturier, Cedric
  • Garcin, Manuel
  • Oliveros, Carlos
JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH Pages: 1421-1426 Published: 2013
0749-0208 eISSN: 1551-5036

This paper reviews two recent assessments undertaken in France for evaluating national scale consequences of global change for coastal hazards and risks, namely marine submersion and coastal erosion. In a first approach, the potential consequences of climate change were evaluated in a direct quantitative way, however with high uncertainties in the final evaluation. Recognizing that uncertainties could hardly be reduced, a second assessment based on a multi-criteria evaluation was then undertaken. Geomorphological and marine factors that account for physical vulnerability to coastal hazards were evaluated for 21 coastal entities in metropolitan France. The evaluation was structured using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The results highlighted the fact that in some specific regions such as Languedoc-Roussillon (Mediterranean coast) and Pertuis (Atlantic coast), the population is expected to increase more than the mean average, while the coastal zone are also likely to be more strongly affected by coastal hazards. While such national scale evaluations in highly diversified coastal environments are still arguable, they may help identifying unsustainability in current trends and help defining priorities for future adaptation strategies.

Author Keyword(s)
  • Climate change
  • global change
  • vulnerability
  • adaptation
KeyWord(s) Plus
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Geosciences
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Geography, Physical
  • Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

[Le Cozannet, Goneri; Lecacheux, Sophie; Mirgon, Carola; Garcin, Manuel; Oliveros, Carlos] Bur Rech Geol & Minieres, F-45000 Orleans, France; [Ait-Kaci, Ahmed] BIPE, F-92138 Issy Les Moulineaux, France; [Peinturier, Cedric] French Minist Charge Environm, MEDDE, F-92055 La Defense, Arche Sud, France

Reprint Adress

Le Cozannet, G (reprint author), Bur Rech Geol & Minieres, 3 Av Guillemin, F-45000 Orleans, France.

  • France
Accession Number
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